Research

ELECTORAL POLITICS

“Reducing Item Non-Response to Vote Choice Questions: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Mexico.” (With Mollie J. Cohen; forthcoming in Public Opinion Quarterly).

Abstract: Retrospective vote choice is a critical question asked in political science surveys. Yet,
this question suffers from persistently high item non-response rates, which can bias estimates and
limit scholars’ ability to make sound inferences. In this paper, we develop a sensitive survey
technique to decrease non-response to the vote choice question in a representative, face-to-face
survey in Mexico City and Mexico State in 2018-2019. Respondents received different iterations
of three treatments: an anonymity guarantee, a confidentiality reminder, and audio-assisted
interviewing technology. The use of audio technology combined with a credible anonymity
guarantee significantly improved item response. Both anonymity and confidentiality assurances
improved the accuracy of response, which more closely resembled official results in the sensitive
conditions. We then evaluate two non-rival mechanisms that might drive our findings: beliefs
about response anonymity and re-engagement with the survey. We find that increased perceptions
of response anonymity are associated with improved item response.

“When “Following” the Leader Inspires Action: Individuals’ Receptivity to Discursive Frame Elements on Social Media” Political Communication 38:5 (2021): 581-603. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2020.1829761.

Abstract: How political actors convey information–that is, the discursive frames they use–can alter individuals’ attitudes, preferences, and behaviors, especially during campaigns. Although scholars have shown that discursive frames using populist rhetoric evoke particularly strong reactions, we do not yet know how the individual elements that make up the populist frame, like anti-elitism or pro-people, fare relative to other ways of seeing the political world or what kinds of messages engage individuals beyond populist ones. In this paper, I evaluate the effectiveness of thirteen frame elements in stimulating online engagement. I derive frame elements not only from populism, but from competing discursive frames including technocracy, pluralism, and neutral rhetoric. I find support for my argument that frame elements using populist rhetoric, are less cognitively demanding, and evoke emotions produce observable framing effects. To test my argument, I evaluate campaign Tweets from 18 candidates in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Italy, and Spain (N=1,577). My findings inform us about what individual candidates prioritize in their campaigns by looking at populist elements relative to elements of other discursive strategies, as well as affirming the existence of framing effects in campaigns while identifying the generalizable content of the messages that produce these framing effects.   framing effects. 

“The Comparative Effectiveness of Populist Rhetoric in Generating Online Engagement.” Electoral Studies 72 (2021): 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102359.

Abstract: Worldwide, voters are supporting populist candidates who promise to upend “politics as usual.” Despite all we know about populism, we still do not know how individuals respond to populist content during campaigns, particularly compared to other common content in liberal democracies. This paper adapts framing theory to an online electoral context to argue that populist campaign messages will generate more online engagement compared to three alternative conceptions of the relationship between the people and the elites: pluralism, technocracy, and a neutral category. The paper adapts Snow and Benford’s seminal 1988 theory of resonance to studies of populist communication to assess whether populism resonates more with online social media users. An original dataset using the campaign Tweets of 22 national-level actors across five cases is used to test the theory: Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Italy, and Spain (N=1,777). The findings suggest that citizens on Twitter engage with populism more than alternatives in certain contexts.

“The Populist Communication Strategy in Broader Perspective” The International Journal of Press-Politics. https://doi.org/10.1177/19401612211055695

Abstract: Populism has captured the world’s attention, especially during election campaigns where the starkness of populist messages come into sharper focus. While most research focuses either on the content that actors communicate or their delivery of that content, I situate my research among the few studies that do both. I refer to this combination as a communication strategy. I evaluate two research questions: how is the populist communication strategy used and how do the communication strategies of populist and non-populist actors differ? To assess these questions, I measure different elements of communication strategies (including both content and style) in the Tweets of national-level candidates in five countries: Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Italy, and Spain (N=1,577). Looking at communication strategies in this way points us away from easy stereotypes of populist style as always negative and instead opens up the possibility that populists use a mix of ideas and styles in their overall strategy.

“Methodological Memo on Measuring Populist Rhetoric on Twitter” (Published online on Team Populism’s website).

“Representation in the Americas: Perceptions of External Efficacy in the 2018/19 AmericasBarometer” (LAPOP’s Insights series #146). Spanish version also available.

Spotlight on Anti-Elite Attitudes. In Pulse of Democracy. Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., and Noam Lupu (Eds.). 2019. 66-67.

Spotlight on Insecurity in Mexico. In Pulse of Democracy. Zechmeister, Elizabeth J., and Noam Lupu (Eds.). 2019. 68-69.